US Holiday Shopper Spending Expected to Reach Record $890 Per Person

holiday spending NRF survey consumer spending holiday shopping trends AI in shopping BNPL
Nicole Wang
Nicole Wang

Customer Development Manager

 
October 24, 2025 2 min read

TL;DR

This article details the NRF's holiday spending forecast, projecting an average of $890 per person. It covers key trends like early shopping to manage budgets and avoid stress, and the significant impact of AI in finding deals and comparing products. Additionally, the rise of Buy Now, Pay Later services for affordability and budget management is highlighted.

Consumers are projected to spend $890.49 per person on average this holiday season. This is according to a National Retail Federation (NRF) survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. This amount is the second-highest in the survey's 23-year history. Last year's record was $901.99 per person.

Holiday Spending
Image courtesy of Retail Customer Experience

Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President, stated that Americans prioritize spending on loved ones despite economic uncertainty. Retailers are preparing to deliver deals and value. Of the total spending, $627.93 will be for gifts, and $262.56 will be for seasonal items like food, decorations, and cards according to the survey.

Shopping Trends

Early shopping remains popular, with 42% of shoppers planning to start before November. The main reasons are to spread out their budget (54%) and avoid last-minute stress (41%). However, 60% anticipate finishing in December according to the NRF.

Tariffs remain a concern for 85% of holiday shoppers, who anticipate higher prices. 63% plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to shop, up from 59% last year per the NRF.

Phil Rist, Prosper Executive Vice President, noted that families with children are expected to increase their gift budgets by over $30 on average. The NRF survey indicates that online shopping remains the top destination, with 55% planning to make purchases digitally.

Payment Methods and AI Usage

PayPal's latest Holiday Shopping Survey reveals that 77% of "AI shoppers" plan to use AI this year, with 34% using it to search for discounts. Half of consumers will use buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans to finance holiday purchases, citing affordability and better budget management.

AI and Shopping
Image courtesy of Newsweek

Michelle Gill, general manager at PayPal, said that shoppers are navigating a new era of smarter spending, with BNPL becoming mainstream. 40% of Americans have used AI to find deals and compare products according to PayPal.

Nicole Wang
Nicole Wang

Customer Development Manager

 

Customer success strategist who ensures cybersecurity companies achieve their 100K+ monthly visitor goals through GrackerAI's portal ecosystem. Transforms customer insights into product improvements that consistently deliver 18% conversion rates and 70% reduced acquisition costs.

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